Scott Minerd says Bitcoin price will drop to $8K, but technical analysis says otherwise


BTC price could be poised for a big bounce despite Minerd’s prediction that price will drop to $8,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is predicted to drop more than 70% to the $8,000 value area, according to comments by Guggenheim chief investment fficer Scott Minerd. This is not the first time he has made a bearish call, and he has, in the past, made bullish calls as well. However, Minerd’s more recent calls have occurred just before major reversals.

It should be noted that Mr. Minerd, if inferred from previous comments, is a Bitcoin bull and has a long forecast for the biggest digital asset in the six-figure range. However, if traders and investors used his comments as a sentiment indicator for a market low, then other confirmatory data must be used.

Long term oscillators values support a bullish reversal

The weekly and monthly RSI (relative strength index) and composite index show that extremes have been met. These extremes do not predict or guarantee a reversal. Still, they warn bears that the momentum of further downside movement is likely to be severely limited or eliminated.

BTC/USD weekly relative strength index (RSI) (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The weekly RSI remains in bull market conditions, despite it moving below both the oversold levels of 50 and 40 — until it hits 30, the bull market RSI settings remain. Currently, at 33, this weekly RSI level is the lowest since the week of December 10, 2018, and just below the March 2020 COVID-19 crash low of 33.48.

Likewise, the weekly composite index reading for Bitcoin is at an extreme. It is currently at the lowest level it has traded at since the week of February 8, 2018. The current level that the weekly composite index is at has historically been a strong indicator that a swing low is likely to develop.

BTC/USD weekly composite index (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The black vertical lines identify the most recent historical lows in Bitcoin’s weekly composite index.

Chart patterns on oscillators can help identify upcoming reversals

The use of basic chart patterns like rectangles and triangles on a Japanese candlestick or American bar charts c is not limited to just the price chart. For example, the great analyst and trader Connie Brown (the creator of the composite index) impresses analysts and traders to pay attention to chart patterns in oscillators.

BTC/USD monthly (RSI) (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

The falling wedge pattern on the monthly RSI fulfills all the requirements to confirm that pattern: five touches of the trend lines. It should be noted that the monthly RSI for Bitcoin, like the weekly RSI, remains in bull market conditions, and the current RSI is just below the first oversold level of 50.

Another major development with Bitcon’s oscillators is the regular bullish divergence between the monthly RSI and the monthly composite index. The composite index, created by Connie Brown, essentially is the RSI with a momentum calculation — it catches moves that the RSI cannot.

Note the structure of the lines on the monthly RSI compared to the composite index. The RSI shows lower lows, but the composite index shows higher lows. That is a regular bullish divergence.

BTC/USD Monthly composite index (Coinbase) Source: TradingView

Regular bullish divergence is most often measured between price and an oscillator, but it can also be measured between two oscillators. Regular bullish divergence is a warning sign that the current downtrend will likely face a corrective move higher or the beginning of a new uptrend.

Bitcoin price action remains correlated to stocks

Due to the continued correlative behavior between Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market to stocks, special attention should be given to this week, specifically Thursday (May 26, 2022).

Economists and Wall Street continued to sound off worries about growth. After Target’s (NYSE: TGT) dismal quarterly report last week, all eyes are on other big-name retailers announcing earnings on May 26: Macy’s (NYSE: M), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Dollar General (NYSE: DG) are all on deck May 26.

However, given that much of the stock market is below bear market levels, any negative news from retail stocks or the United States Federal Reserve is likely to be considered “priced in.” Volume into the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NASDAQ: QQQ) has increased, as have inflows to Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

Thus, if stocks bounce, Bitcoin will bounce. The upside potential for Bitcoin will likely be limited to the critical psychological and 2022 volume point of control at $40,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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