Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle broken — and if so, where to next?
Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle has ended in 2025, with institutional ETFs and regulatory shifts cited as key factors.
A wave of institutional crypto participation spurred by exchange-traded funds, an easing of regulations in the US, an increase in global liquidity, and a Federal Reserve leadership change are just some of the reasons why analysts think the typical four-year crypto cycle is broken.
The four-year cycle is tied to Bitcoin (BTC) halving events, which cut miner rewards in half, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation.
Historically, this was seen as the catalyst for a predictable pattern: accumulation, a post-halving bull run that peaked around 18 months later, followed by a sharp correction and multi-year bear market.
